Technical Proof
Interactive Showcases
Inspect assumptions, query model uncertainty, and test commercial scenarios directly.
Showcase 01 • Bayesian Marketing Effectiveness
Media Channel Allocation & Incrementality
Isolating true causal lift by modeling baseline demand, adstock decay kinetics, and media saturation S-curves without cookie tracking.
“If we shift 20% of television spend into performance digital, what is the expected incremental revenue and its 95% posterior credible interval?”
- Parameter Estimation: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with domain priors.
- Diminishing Returns: Hill saturation curves capturing exact saturation thresholds.
FIGURE 1: MCMC Posterior Distributions & Saturation S-Curves
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Interactive MMM Scenario Simulator
Adjust quarterly media spend to simulate estimated incremental revenue and 95% Bayesian credible bounds.
Total Media Investment
€2,700,000
Median Incremental Revenue
€8,340,000
95% Bayesian Credible Interval
€7.4M – €9.2M
Showcase 02 • Predictive Sales Intelligence
Uncertainty Quantification & Target Risk
Standard financial planning presents static point forecasts that fail. We deliver full posterior prediction intervals to assess exact shortfall probabilities.
“What is the exact probability of missing our quarterly target given current demand variance and supply lead times?”
- Fan-Chart Confidence Bands: 50%, 80%, and 95% posterior prediction intervals.
- Target Risk Simulation: Direct quantification of downside risk for finance and inventory control.
FIGURE 2: Fan-Chart Forecast & Credible Prediction Intervals
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